We now know, what many suspected from the evidence of our TV screens in the spring and summer, that Covid is a deadly disease for identifiable and relatively small groups of people.
87% of Covid mortalities have been in people over 65; the average age of those who have died from Covid is 82.4; 95% of Covid mortalities have been in people with pre-existing medical conditions; if a person has a BMI count of between 35-40 there is an increased risk of death by 40%; if a person has a BMI count of over 40 there is an increased risk of death by 90%; and certain ethnic groups appear to have genetic susceptibilities which makes their rates of death higher.
I believe it is the role of government to try its utmost to protect these groups from this virus. I also believe it is the role of government to put this virus in perspective.
Since the Covid lockdown:
- 24,000 cancers have gone undiagnosed and that is expected to rise to 35,000
- 2.5 MILLION Britons have not been screened or tested for cancer
- 5,000 heart attack sufferers have missed out on hospital treatment
- 9,000 stroke patients are missing out on a treatment that can prevent disability following a stroke
- To name just a few of the health conditions for which people’s treatment is being delayed or not started
The Government’s approach to addressing the virus is causing significant economic damage and the longer-term physical not to mention mental health effects on our population are beginning to become apparent.
So why, after the lockdown ended, was not a more targeted approach adopted? This would have meant:
- Shielding the groups at risk, allied with testing and other investment to improve their quality of life
- Ensuring capacity in hospitals
- A health promotion campaign targeted at helping people to eat more healthily and lose weight
- Sensible precautions and behaviours for the rest of the population
Shielding the groups at risk, allied with testing and other investments to improve their quality of life
- People in such groups should be allowed to stay at home; off-work and be given at least 80% (or more) of their income paid by the government.
- They should be given free home delivery for food and all other shopping and living requirements.
- Parks throughout the country should be shut to the general public at specific times each week, so that those shielding can access them, in the knowledge that they will not meet anyone infected with Covid.
- National Trust properties, etc, should do something similar with the addition that staff, with whom the shielding groups would have to interact, would have had to achieve a negative test immediately before arriving at work. Hospitals can turn around tests and know the results within two hours. Investment should be made to scale this up, so that those who need quick results can get them. If this is not possible in the short term (despite the government having had all summer to make this happen) then such staff should take a test and if negative, completely self-isolate for the intervening period until they serve those who are shielding.
- Similar actions could also be done by shops and supermarkets, with self-isolating staff, who volunteer for this, being paid full wages.
- People should be allowed to visit loved ones in residential homes, provided that they have tested negative immediately before arriving at the home or have tested negative a day or so before and then in the intervening period have completely self-isolated.
The principles underpinning this could be extended to other circumstances, which will make the life of those shielding less lonely and debilitating.
Of course, this depends on the testing system delivering and volunteers who are happy to self-isolate.
With respect to volunteers that should be no problem. I think we will be inundated with volunteers to help in such a way, given the huge response to the NHS Responder scheme.
Ensuring capacity in hospitals
The reason we entered the lockdown in the first place, and were right to do so, was because of the fear that the NHS and particularly intensive care would not be able to cope with the volume of cases.
The Nightingale hospitals were a stunning achievement. It was great that hardly any of that extra capacity was needed in the first wave. But that extra capacity is there and if the projections predict that we need even more capacity is needed, then we should be building such hospitals now.
I also think we should consider designating some hospitals for non Covid patients and others for Covid patients so that treatments for other diseases and conditions can restart and accelerate.
A health promotion campaign targeted at helping people to eat more healthily and lose weight
Our Prime Minister’s brush with Covid, was probably exacerbated by his excess weight and he has, we are led to believe, subsequently lost two stone. The UK’s population has one of the highest obesity levels in the world. Over 62% of the UK population is overweight, with a BMI count of over 25. 25% of the population are obese with a BMI count of over 30%.
The Government should be investing heavily in:
- Education in schools
- Promotion of cheap healthy eating options for families
- Promoting easy to access exercise classes and opportunities for everyone to do more exercise
- Provide free membership of groups like Weight watchers and Slimmer World
- Provide tax incentives for people to lose weight
- Initiate an imaginative and unmissable (dominating the media) marketing campaign to promote healthier lifestyles for a healthier Britain
Sensible precautions and behaviours for the rest of the population
The rest of the population’s main contribution will be to individually to try to ensure that they do not pass on the virus to anyone in these at-risk groups.
This will mean that most people can go about their life pretty near normally. It would be right for people to keep social distancing; washing their hands and using masks indoors and on all public transport.
An occasional lockdown for a limited period in specific geographical locations may be necessary if ICU capacity is threatened.
Any staff who work amongst people who are likely to have the virus but without exhibiting symptoms and believe that they have underlying health conditions which cause them to be at greater risk of suffering adverse side effects from a Covid infection should be entitled to be furloughed.
People living ‘normally’ will need to take responsibility of ensuring that they do everything in their power to socially distance especially when passing older people – 50 is the age when the risks start increasing.
If people want to see relatives or friends who are in the at risk or shielding categories then it would be their responsibility to visit only after having had a negative test immediately before the visit or they self-isolate for the appropriate period beforehand.
Mark Roberts 