We know what Putin is Like
In recent years it has been clear that Vladimir Putin seeks to return Russia to what he perceives as it’s glorious past whether that be the Soviet Union or the Empire of Peter the Great. We know the following about Putin:
- He believes that Ukraine is part of Russia
- He believes that the Baltic States should be part of Russia
- He is unhappy with former Soviet Union countries being part of the EU and NATO
- He murders and imprisons any formidable internal political opponents
- He organises the murder of Russians abroad – Salisbury poisoning being just one example
He is a man who only understands the use of power, force and intimidation. He views his opponents as weak unless they respond in kind.
We also know that President of Xi of China wants to incorporate Taiwan into China and is taking preparatory military steps to do so.
I am no military expert or strategic statesman, but I perceive we have four choices:
Choice One: Hope the Ukrainians bog Putin down
We do no more than we are currently doing to support Ukraine and in a matter of time Kyiv falls and Putin instals a puppet Russian new government. Guerrilla warfare and resistance then dominates the following years, which requires Putin’s attention and in time Russia might withdraw.
This will make further expansion by Putin less likely; and also give President Xi pause for thought.
Choice Two: Putin holds and contains Ukraine
We do no more than we are currently doing to support Ukraine and in a matter of time Kyiv falls and Putin instals a puppet Russian new government. In this scenario, Ukrainian resistance is broken, and Russian power is consolidated. A puppet Ukrainian government functions relatively normally and the country is in ‘peace’.
This makes further expansion by Putin more likely with the Baltic states next to be invaded. I believe that Putin would then gamble correctly, in my opinion, that the West will allow this to happen to avoid World War Three. He might then move on to Moldova and then Romania.
China will annex Taiwan
Choice Three: we have a no-fly zone within a week and are at war with Russia
The west, in choices three and four, decide that the only way to stop Putin is through force. The issue between the two options is only one of timing.
Choice three is that world community decide to create a no-fly zone over Ukraine in the coming week, recognise that we are at war with Putin and ignore his threats about nuclear weapons. We also stop all energy supplies coming from Russia.
Such a choice will have enormous implications for the way of life in many European countries especially the energy supply embargo. Emergency gas and oil supplies for countries, who rely on Russia, will have to be organised and day to day life in many countries will have to severely regulated and energy rationed. This change to our way of life will be greater than anything that happened during Covid.
Choice Four: We prepare for war with Russia
The analysis is the same as above, but we use the next two to three years to prepare for war. We make countries energy self-sufficient, without needing Russia; we rebuild our armed forces and then liberate Ukraine and end the Putin regime at a time of our choosing. During this time, we use all economic, diplomatic and political channels to try to influence internal change in Russia to get rid of Putin.
But we announce Choice Four now.
Mark Roberts 